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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Player Analysis - Strikers

Now comes the meat of where the fantasy points comes from - the strikers. Based on last season's statistics, only 3 players (Dempsey, Silva & Evra) are able to get 3-digit scores. As for the strikers...

2011/12 Season - Top Strikers
* Yakubu is no longer in Premier League, while Fletcher has moved to Sunderland this season.

...6 strikers made at least 100pts, with Robin van Persie (8.5) leading the way with an amazing 176 points. Wayne Rooney (8.0), Sergio Aguero (7.8) and Emmanuel Adebayor (6.9) lead their teams to a top 4 finish, while Demba Ba (6.4) finished 5th with his early season exploits. Despite his goal scoring exploits, Yakubu couldn't keep Blackburn in the Premier League with his 17 goals and 2 assists.

It might have been a surprise to see Edin Dzeko (7.0) & Graham Holt (6.0) just bubbling outside 100pts, as Dzeko had 14 goals in only 16 starts & 14 subs appearances, while Holt had 15 goals in 24 starts & 9 sub appearances. Even though they may not be frequent starters, but they're deadly enough to be considered top fantasy prospects.


So, who should I select?
I'll split the selections into the following tiers: $$$ (7.0 and above), $$ (6.0 - 6.9) and $ (5.9 and below)

i) $$$ (7.0 and above) aka Top Scorer Favourites
Man Utd fans rejoiced when they signed the top striker from last season, Robin van Persie (8.5). Fantasy managers would have groan in unison as they have to decide whether partnering with Wayne Rooney (8.0) will cause both players to score less fantasy points than last season. 

Same issues are faced on the selection of Man City players. Sergio Aguero (7.8) was the main man for Man City while Carlos Tevez (7.4) became a golf caddy for half season. With Mario Balotelli (7.1) and Edin Dzeko (7.0) waiting in the wings, Aguero could too have a diminished output compared to last season.

Perhaps it's of good fortune that both Rooney and Aguero are out for at least a month, but once both players are back, there'll be a selection headache for all fantasy managers...

...or one can ignore both, and go for more safer first team options like Fernando Torres (7.2) or Luis Suarez (7.1), who are seen as the cornerstone of the attacks for Chelsea & Liverpool. If they can managed 15 goals this season, they are likely to break the 100 pts barrier.


ii) $$ (6.0 - 6.9) aka Reasonably Priced
One can make a case for any of the 6.9 priced strikers:
Olivier Giroud is touted to take over RVP's scoring boots, but has pleaded for time to adapt to the fast-paced Premier League. A tougher upcoming league schedule doesn't help.

- New manager Paul Lambert's attacking philosophy should enhance the scoring potential of Darren Bent, but like Arsenal, he has yet to get off the mark.

Papiss Cisse was the midseason sensation last season, with 13 goals in 13 games.
Emmanuel Adebayor has finally made his permanent move to Spurs, and with Jermaine Defoe (6.4) unlikely to be used often in a lone striker role, Adebayor looks to cement his place in the starting 11.
- Danny Welback....ok, maybe not.
The hottest player at the moment has to be Eden Hazard (6.8). 3 games, 1 goal, 6 assists = 25 fantasy pts. Extrapolate that, and he's likely to finish the season with....316 pts!! :P
Now, let's assume his output slows down, and with Champions League in mind, he finishes with 32 appearances, 7 goals and 15 assists...that's still more than 100pts. He would have been a much better choice if he was placed as a midfielder, but if you still don't trust Torres but want a Chelsea attacker, Hazard's your pick. 

Lucas Podolski (6.6) has subbed out in both Arsenal's games. Compared to Giroud (yet to be subbbed) & Cazorla (greater attacking threat displayed), I don't really view him as a bargain. On the other hand, Everton's hot start have placed Nikica Jelavic (6.6) in my radar. With no midweek Europe travels to worry about, he's one to look out for when the Toffees have a good run of fixtures.

Demba Ba (6.4) is another potential bargain when based on the 1st half of last season, but he was moved to the wings once Cisse came along, which reduces his scoring opportunities. The jury's still out for Fabio Borini (6.2), whose Liverpool team is having a tough run of fixtures.

With the new boss Chris Hughton, Norwich's Grant Holt (6.0) is likely to feature for more than 24 games, though the team isn't performing as well as expected. Last but not least, Romelu Lukaku (6.0) is another to consider, if he can force his way into the 1st team.


ii) $ (5.9 and below) aka Bargains Galore...well, depends.
Looking at last year's scoring, a 10-12 goal striker will net your team about 80pts. But would you take one of them as your 2nd striker in a 4-4-2 or 5-3-2 formation?

Hence, this tier of players are likely to be chosen for a 4-3-3 formation, and are likely to be rotated when there's a good run of games. Loads of starters from the mid-table/bottom teams to choose from:
5.9: Steven Fletcher, Danny Graham, Peter Odemwingie.5.7: Djibril Cisse, Bobby Zamora, Rickie Lambert, Jon Walters, Carlton Cole, Ricardo Vaz Te.5.6: Mladen Petric, Pavel Pogrebnyak, Arouna Kone, Adam Le Fondre.
Most of them have the capability to score more than 10 goals (or 10 Row Zs for Zamora). If you plan to rotate them, make sure they have a good schedule of 5 or more games in a row, as you only have 30 transfers in a season.



So here concludes my analysis of all the players in Today Fantasy League. Hope it has been useful to you, and if you have yet to sign up, there's still 16 days left....Register Now!!!

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