Picks of the Week - Gameweek 12...or 13?

If you look at the Leaderboard, Gameweek 12 is under October, hence this gameweek might actually be Week 13...I kinda gave up understanding the weeks after they started from Week 5, and considered internationals as a week. -_-"

For Picks of the Week, I'll look into the gameweek's matches & form a team using £55mil budget. This can be a useful guide for those who are looking for a short-term transfer, or for captaincy choices.

Note: This picks are only for this gameweek & may not represent good value in the long-run.

Sunderland are having trouble creating scoring opportunities, but their defence have held steady with only 8 goals allowed, 2nd best in Premier League after Arsenal (6). This week, the Black Cats host Aston Villa, who have yet to win on the road and only finding the net twice in five trips. This makes Simon Migolet an enticing pick.

WBA has an impressive home record with 4 wins and a loss against defending champions Man City. This week, they host bottom dwellers Southampton. Given Steve Clarke's emphasis on defence, I'm looking at Liam Ridgewell might have a chance to grab a clean sheet this weekend, especially since the Baggies have conceded goals in the past 5 games.

As mentioned in this week's Today column, Branislav Ivanovic will be eligible to face Swansea this week. The Swans made minimal changes in their midweek win against Liverpool, and with Ivanovic well-rested for the week, the Chelsea fullback will be bombing down the flanks to make amends for last week's red card against Man Utd.

Another player who is looking to atone for his mistakes is Tottenham's Jan Vertonghen. His own goal against Norwich caused Spurs to tumble out of Capitol One Cup. Against a Wigan team who are having trouble scoring away from home and with BAE still sidelined, the Belgian defender will remain in a more offensive fullback position against one of the weakest, yet most unpredictable teams in Premier League.

Stoke kept their 4th clean sheet last weekend despite my outside pick Marc Wilson being stretched off from a broken ankle (THE CURSE OF THE PUNDIT!). They travel to low-scoring Norwich this week, who only scored 7 goals in 9 games so far. Robert Huth had 2 headed attempts on target against Sunderland last weekend, and if he continues with such form, he's likely to open his account this week.

Gareth Bale has seen a 4% increase in ownership this week, after his last weekend's goal against Southampton. This week, they take on Wigan, who are never known for their tight defence. The Welshman would be a good choice for captaincy if the team does not have a certain Dutchman...

My next 2 picks are of high-risk nature. Firstly, QPR's Adel Taarabt can be relied for assist potential, though his last match against Arsenal showed a different side of him. His 6 tackles attempts was the most among QPR players, and his improved work-rate seemed to have secure his spot in the starting 11. Their opponent, Reading, isn't faring well either, hence this weekend represents one of the best chance for QPR to notch their 1st victory, with the Moroccan pulling the strings from midfield.

The other player I have in mind is a Chelsea midfielder....Oscar! The red-hot Juan Mata is rated doubtful for this weekend with a hamstring injury. Considering he played 120 minutes midweek, the Spaniard is likely to be rested for their Champions League tie against Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday.

Since Eden Hazard is (mis)classified as a striker, it's about time Oscar translate his CL form in BPL. He already made his 1st assist last gameweek, and if Mata is missing, he'll be the main link-up player between the midfield and Torres/Hazard.

I'll skip the descriptions for RVP and Tevez, as I've already discussed it on Today article.

Lastly, WBA's Shane Long is doubtful for Monday's match against Southampton, which will boost the chance of Romelu Lukaku being called into the starting lineup. He scored in last weekend against Newcastle, and with Southampton's manager insisted in sticking to their attacking principle, there'll be plenty of chances and space for Lukaku to exploit this gameweek.

Picks of the Week - Gameweek 11

For Picks of the Week, I'll look into the gameweek's matches & form a team using £55mil budget. This can be a useful guide for those who are looking for a short-term transfer, or for captaincy choices.

Note: This picks are only for this gameweek & may not represent good value in the long-run.

Man City will be looking to bounce back from their disappointing loss against Ajax midweek, and they'll be back in their Etihad Stadium stronghold against Swansea, who went scoreless in 2 of 3 away PL games this season. As usual, I'll be recommending the safest player in their starting 11, Joe Hart.

Fulham might look vulnerable in their travels, but their last season's away form netted them 6 clean sheets, tied-3rd best with Man City & Newcastle. It might be time for their 1st away clean sheet as they travel to Reading. John Arne Riise, top fullback in Today Fantasy League with 19pts, looks likely to benefit from an opponent who only managed to score 8 and conceded 14 this season.

With the return of Bacary Sagna, Carl Jenkinson might use this last opportunity in order to impress the manager. Arsenal is facing bottom dwellers QPR, who have yet to win a game this season. However, there is the risk of Jenkinson being substituted before 75 mins, which means no clean sheet points, so Thomas Vermaelen might be a safer (though costlier) choice in centreback.

As mentioned in my weekly TODAY column, Stoke players are value-for-money due to their upcoming fixtures & their defensive strength. With their opponent, Sunderland, relying on just 1 player to provide scoring, as long as Robert Huth & company can shut him down, Stoke is likely to rack up another clean sheet.

Against a WBA side who has scored 3 away goals this season, Newcastle might be a good bet to keep a clean sheet at home tonight. Steven Taylor may not be a confirmed starter as he started in the midweek Europa fixture, but he's the best goal threat among Newcastle defenders.

The Guardian has an interesting article on Santi Carzola, which speaks about his impact in La Liga. QPR manager Mark Hughes warned his team on the backlash from Arsenal's poor week, and the Spanish playmaker will be the main threat in pulling the strings for the Gunners' attack.

I've already highlighted Gareth Bale & Demba Ba potential in my weekly TODAY column, hence I'll skip the description over here.

West Ham travels to Wigan, who have conceded 2 goals in each of their home game. Having scored 4 goals with 2 assists, captain Kevin Nolan will be a key player in West Ham's attack, and will likely be involved in the Hammers' goals, if any.

Dimitar Berbatov might not have scored last week, but he contributed to 3 goal attempts inside the penalty area. Against a Reading side who let in 6 goals in 3 home games, look for the Bulgarian to be in the thick of action for Fulham tonight.

Lastly, it might be hard to predict who Mancini might field for Man City with his constant tinkering, but Carlos Tevez have started for all but one Premier League game this season. Also, he had a 20 minute cameo in their midweek Champions League tie, hence he is the likeliest starter against a Swansea team who failed to keep a clean sheet in their past 6 games.

TODAY Articles: 4 Players from Each Position

So in the past five days, TODAY published articles on Top picks from each position from myself & TODAY editors. Let's take a look back & analyse each of our choices.

Goalkeepers

TFLTalk picks: Vorm, Cech, Howard, Hart
TODAY picks: Vorm, Foster, Szczesny, Hart

I do rate Foster as a Top 10 pick, though not as a Top 4 pick in terms of either overall score (which Hart will lead) or a valued selection (which Vorm is a better pick).

With Mannone performing admirably between the post in the past 2 games, Szczesny might not be a confirmed starter throughout the season. Could this be another De Gea-Lindegaard situation? I guess tonight's game against Southampton could give us some indication on the goalkeeper's status.

Centrebacks

TFLTalk picks: Kompany, Vidic, Vermaelen, Vertonghen
TODAY picks: McAuley, Reid, Vermaelen, Hangeland

The article states "Top picks for the season", hence I went with the priciest picks. As seen from  last season's top centrebacks, 5 of the Top 6 players are from Manchester. The expensive players looks to be a poor choice, but based on previous experience, Clean Sheets will usually be plentiful during mid-season.

Even though McAuley and Reid are good picks based on current fixtures, in the long run they might be able to make it to Top 20...but they're not a Top 4 pick.

Hangeland was in my initial list of picks, but with Dembele's departure & Jol's change in Fulham's strategy makes me wonder if this will be a transition season for Fulham.

& yes, I've chosen 3 Belgium Centrebacks. Only realized that after it was published. :P

Fullbacks

TFLTalk picks: Baines, Evra, A.Cole, G.Johnson

TODAY picks: Baines, Rangel, BAE, Ivanovic

I had a tough time deciding between Rangel & G.Johnson, but I kinda predicted TODAY would be picking Rangel, hence I went with an alternative pick of G.Johnson. Both players should finish with similar points by the end of the season.

I've explained my logic on selecting A.Cole instead of Ivanovic. However, based on OPTA statistics last season, Ivanovic was a greater goal threat than A.Cole despite having less gametime. With yet another goal during the internationals, I have to concede that I may have selected the wrong fullback.

If I were to pick a Tottenham fullback, I'll go with Kyle Walker instead, who is more likely to cut into the penalty area leading to a scoring opportunity than BAE.

Midfielders

TFLTalk picks: Michu, Silva, Cazorla, Fellaini
TODAY picks: N.Dyer, Y.Toure, Cazorla, Fellaini
As David Ngiau mentioned, picking either Swansea midfielder (Michu or N.Dyer) is good for the long run, which I have no arguments about.

For Silva vs Y.Toure, based on OPTA statistics, he created 4 clear chances for Man City, and the average position map shows that he was the further midfielder on the pitch, hence I believe that his form will return before December.

Anyone else besides me secretly rooting for Lampard to outscore Y.Toure, so that we can see David Ngiau eat his shorts? :P

Strikers
TFLTalk picks: RVP, Tevez, Hazard, Lambert
TODAY picks: RVP, Tevez, Hazard, Graham
It's pretty much a no-brainer when it comes to strikers selection, eh? Wait till Aguero & Rooney recovers from their injuries to throw some spanner in our thoughts.

I'm picking Rickie Lambert to be this year's surprise package from the promoted teams, and will have a similar impact to last season's Danny Graham & Grant Holt.

Speaking of Graham, he isn't a bad choice, just that he's being outshine by the midfield trio of Michu, Dyer & Routledge. His shooting accuracy % and chances per game is similar to last season, so fantasy managers who have him will need to be patient to reap the rewards.

Well, that's it for the pre-TFL season articles. I hope you have found this blog & my Today articles useful in selecting your initial team. Do follow me on Twitter (@TFLTalk) for quicker personal opinions & updates, and join my TFLTalk League (PIN: 28330) in one of the largest and most competitive private league in Today Fantasy League.

Thank you, and good luck for the season ahead! HUAT AH!!!!

Player Analysis - Goalkeeper

Let's begin our analysis from the back, where each manager will have to pick 1 Goalkeeper. Even though most of our fantasy focus will be on the attacking end, but one must not neglect the defensive aspect, especially when you will lose a point for every goal conceded by your goalkeeper.

2011/12 Season - Top 10 Goalkeepers

Note: TodayOnline Dream Team 11/12 stated Hart obtained 43pts in the last season. Based on my estimation, the score shown is based on last season scoring system, where 1 clean sheet is 2pts, and no defender game points (DGP). The figures shown in the above table is based on this year scoring system.

Manchester City's Joe Hart lead the GK chart last season with a score of 98 points. Participating in all 38 games for the 11/12 champions & keeping 17 clean sheets, Hart scored 21 more points than 2nd placed Brad Friedel.

Everton's Tim Howard was the only other keeper who managed 70+ points. Manchester United may have the 2nd best defence last season, but David De Gea is ranked 4th due to Ferguson's preference for Anders Lindegaard at times.

Despite having lesser appearance and clean sheets, Liverpool's Jose Reina scored more points than Newcastle's Tim Krul due to goals conceded. Swansea's Michael Vorm is 7th in the ranking, with Szczesny, Cech & Mignolet rounding off the Top 10 list.

So isn't this easy? Just pick Hart!

Well....not quite. Even though Joe Hart is cheap (Hart £4.6mil is cheaper Kompany / Lescott / Clichy...which I'll discuss in the Defenders analysis), but the lowest priced striker is already worth £5.0mil, and if you're planning to use 4-3-3 formation, you will need to find much cheaper players in other position.

There is also another disadvantage:

Select a maximum of two players from any one club

Not only Man City have the best defence, but they also have the best attack in the Premier League last season. By selecting Joe Hart, you'll be left with 1 slot for Silva / Yaya Toure / Nasri / Aguero / Tevez.  Hence, do you want to overload on their attackers, who are likely to score more points, or spread across both defence and attack, but possibly less points?

So what are the other options?

If you're confident that De Gea (4.5) will cement his place in the 1st team this season, he'll be a contender for the Top Goalkeeper this season. If assuming De Gea played all 38 Premier League games last season, he would have scored the same amount of points as Hart.

For sub-4.0 goalkeepers, Friedal (3.8) & Howard (3.7) stands out as great options, though Spurs are rumoured to be shopping for another goalkeeper, and Everton often starts the season with a whimper (though they did beat Man Utd last week). If you believe Newcastle & Swansea can maintain their form this season, then Krul (3.5) & Vorm (3.2) are viable options too.

Managers who are in need of searching for the cheapest available option (2.9) who will start, there's Norwich's John Ruddy, Reading's Adam Federici and Southampton's Kelvin Davis. If I'm forced to pick among the 3, I'll go with Federici, as Reading has the best defence among the promoted sides last season.

Next up, I'll analysis on the guys that usually hug the touchlines of the pitch: Defence - Fullbacks.

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